A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
